报告题目：Local Government Debt and Bank Credit Allocation in China
报 告 人：许志伟
时 间：6月20日上午9:00-11:00
腾讯会议：147-325-896 （密码112233）
报告人简介：
许志伟，北京大学汇丰商学院，长聘副教授，毕业于香港科技大学经济系，获经济学博士学位，主要研究兴趣为中国宏观经济、宏观金融、货币政策、经济波动等。主持国家自科优秀青年基金、国家自科青年基金、上海市哲社青年基金等项目。获2016浦山世界经济青年论文奖、2020中国信息经济学会优秀成果奖、2018上海市哲学社科优秀成果二等奖、2020江苏省哲学社科优秀成果二等奖等。主要论文发表在 American Economic Journal: Macro、Economic Journal、Economic Theory、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Economic Theory 、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、Journal of Money, Credit and Banking、Review of Economic Dynamics、Quantitative Economics 以及《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等国内外重要期刊。目前担任 China and World Economy、Economic Modelling 、《经济学报》副主编（Associate Editor）。
摘要：
China launched a three-year debt-to-bond swap program in early 2015 that required local governments to replace outstanding debts by local government bonds. Since most of the swapped and newly issued local government bonds were held by commercial banks, the share of local government bonds in commercial bank assets surged from 2015 to 2018. Under the Basel III capital regulations, local government bonds are considered relatively safe assets with low risk weights. A simple theoretical model shows that an increase in the share of low-risk-weight assets should raise the share of bank lending to risky projects and reduce the credit spread. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the credit spread to changes in risk weights should increase with the amount of outstanding government debts. Guided by the theory, we study the empirical effects of the debt-swap program on banking lending and credit spreads, using confidential loan-level data from one of China's ``Big Five'' commercial banks, combined with province-level government debt data and firm-level balance sheet data in China's manufacturing sector. Consistent with the theory's predictions, we obtain robust empirical evidence that the implementation of the debt-swap program has significantly reduced the credit spread for privately owned firms (POEs) relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the decline in the credit spread is significantly more pronounced in provinces with larger outstanding government debts.
经济与金融学院
2022年6月15日
