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【博文有约】第42期 Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授专访

2018年04月09日 09:19  点击:[]


嘉宾简介:

Alfonso Sousa-Poza,德国霍恩海姆大学健康护理与公共管理学院经济学教授,执行院长。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授本科毕业于南非开普敦大学计算机科学专业,之后在瑞士圣加仑大学先后获得经济学硕士和博士学位。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授是瑞士圣加仑大学经济学永久客座教授,同时也是德国波恩市劳动经济研究所 (IZA) 研究员,并担任The World Bank、European Commission、OECD、Swiss Federal Statistical Office及 Swiss National Science Foundation等机构的咨询委员会专家。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授研究领域主要涉及人口老龄化,健康经济学,劳动经济学以及主观幸福感。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授担任The Journal of the Economics of Ageing (Elsevier)主编之一。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授的研究成果已经发表于诸多相关研究领域的重要期刊,比如Journal of Health Economics、Health Economics、Journal of Population Economics、Labor Economics、Economics & Human Biology, Cambridge Journal of Economics、 European Journal of Industrial Relations、PLoS ONE, Journal of Happiness Studies、European Journal of Population、 Journal of Population Ageing、Journal of Regional Science等。Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授英文学术论著累计他引超过4200次 (据Google Scholar),被瑞士历史上最悠久的报纸《新苏黎世报》(NNZ) 评为瑞士前十位最有影响力的经济学家之一。

1. From you part, which industries will be most affected by artificial intelligence in the next three decades?

您认为未来三十年内哪些行业的工作人员会被人工智能取代?

Well, that's a very interesting question and in fact an extremely difficult question to answer, I’d say, yeah, there are a lot of people who argue that automation, artificial intelligence.

Well, first of all, I think that's quite logic that it will affect those industries of those professions, which are more repetitive and which you can automate. I think it seems quite obvious, and I mean, kinds of occupations from a truck driver to what they also say many white-collar professions, and whether it is in accountancy or related fields, and I think even white-collar workers will be affected.

So I think in any other day it will affect broader and broader range of professions, and I think the key will always be, affect those which can easily be automated, so that means that there are a lot of professions in the service sector,especially care jobs would be affected.

But you know I mean I heard once was saying even academic professors may soon be axed by robots as well you know that we are to a certain extent in the service industry, teaching young people. I think a lot of what we do may be able to watch the major quite an extent, and maybe it's a little bit science fiction but who knows sooner or later robots, maybe doing our teaching and even our research for us, and so on.But I think for first and foremost and especially if you're looking at the next one or two or even three decades, It'll be primarily those white and blue collar workers who do jobs which are relatively repetitive can be automated.

这是一个非常有趣的问题,实际上也是一个非常难以回答的问题。我会说,是的,现在有很多人质疑自动化和人工智能。

首先,我认为这很有逻辑,它会影响那些重复性很强且可以实现自动化的行业。我认为这似乎很明显,我的意思是,从卡车司机到人们所谓的很多“白领”阶层职业,无论是会计还是相关领域,都会受到影响。

所以我认为在任何时候它都会广泛地影响越来越多的职业,关键永远是,影响那些易于实现自动化行业的工作人员,这意味着服务行业有很多专业人士,特别是护理工作将受到影响。

你知道,我曾经听别人说,即使是学术教授也许也会很快被机器人代替,因为你知道我们在某程度上讲也处于服务行业,“服务”(教育)年轻人。我认为我们所做的很多事情可能在很大可能上能达到这种程度,也许这有点像有点科幻小说,但谁知道呢?或许机器人早晚将为我们做我们的教学活动,甚至是我们的研究,等等。但我首先想到的,尤其是如果你放眼下个一个十年、二十年甚至三十年,机器人主要会取代那些白领和蓝领工人的工作,因为这些工作相当重复,容易实现自动化。

2. So what do you think what are the outlets of these replaced employers, what will happen to them?

被机器人替代的雇员将何去何从?

I think the key, there are two things. First of all, I think as a father of four children, four sons who now are all starting to study and do things, I always tell them we'll do study something which has a future, so you know if one really wanted to become a truck driver, I must tell them that is a fantastic profession. I think a lot of young may love being truck drivers and you can get to see the world and, I’m sure they're very exciting. You know anything is, you gonna tell us people, tell myself maybe in twenty years your job will not be needed anymore.

So I think two things first of all the choice of current, profession matters. So what do your children exactly study, you can perhaps steer them into a direction where you believe, and when you believe there may be a future. But nowadays things change quite rapidly and if you have a son of mine who is now eighteen years old, and starting to study you know he's most probably going to retire at seventy his generation I guess. So who knows what the world is going to look like in fifty years. No one knows I guess. When you make recommendations you're basing them basically under here now and the information you have on the first movie will choose a job which at least you believe in the next twenty years is not going to be automated and run by myself machine.

And I think there are a lot of different professions once again no one knows really. I mean I heard recently also that in the medical profession you'll see a lot of automation taking place. So you know it could well be that fifty years, you don't need a surgeon anymore. You’ll have some robots are taking care of all the complicated operations.

Things change, so when is base your decisions now on, would you believe will be your job careers, professions which are still needed in future.And I think perhaps even more important, the future is that our life model which we have now.That you born, you go to primary school, a secondary school, in your high school you go to university, you study for a number of years, during apprenticeship also the same, study, and then at the age of twenty five, you start working, and then we're going to have to work till sixty five, seventy. I assume you’ll work for seventy, uh and then you also have another life expectancy another twenty years ago. This is our life, and I think we have to rethink whether or not it makes sense, the real model, to study until you’re twenty five, knowing that you have to work with seventy, and have life expectancy ninety.

I think the whole issue of continual learning will get importance, it means that after your first degree, you should actually even start planning ahead that may be in ten or twenty years, you may just have to redefine yourself, do another job, learn another profession now at the point in time, most people will still say that Utopia is unrealistic, who's gonna start studying for a new career at the age of fifty five.

Let me think of it, you know most Europeans are painting the retirement at sixty five, but I think in future we have to think things differently, especially if this pace of automation increases, I think it could well happen that you may have to be more dynamic, with your future.

我认为关键是有两件事。首先我认为,作为四个孩子的父亲,四个儿子现在都开始学习或做事,我总是告诉他们我们应该研究一些有前途的东西。所以你知道如果一个人真的想成为卡车司机,我必须告诉他们这是一个梦幻般的职业。我想很多年轻人可能喜欢卡车司机,你可以去看看这个世界,这是非常令人兴奋的。但是你必须知道,你必须告诉我们所有人,也要告诉我们自己,也许在二十年后,你的工作不再被需要了

所以我认为首先是当前的职业选择。那么你的孩子究竟要学什么,你可以把他们引导到你相信的方向,你相信这个方向可能会有未来。但是现在事情发生了很大的变化,如果你有一个十八岁的儿子,他现在开始学习研究,你知道他这一代很有可能会在七十岁时退休,那么谁知道这个世界五十年后将会变成什么样呢?没有人知道。所以当你提出建议时,你现在基本上已经把它们建立在这里了。而在第一幕上中,你将会选择一个至少你相信在未来二十年不会被自动化取代的工作。

我认为有很多不同的职业将会再次不被人们所知。我的意思是我最近也听说在医疗行业,有很多自动化应用。所以可能五十年后,就不再需要外科医生了,会有一些机器人进行所有复杂的操作。

世界不停地变化,所以现在你做出的决定应该是基于你相信你的工作职业是未来仍然需要的职业。我想也许更重要的是,未来就是我们现在的生活模式。你出生,上小学,上中学,高中毕业后你去上大学,学习好几年,在学徒期间也一样学习,然后在二十五岁的时候你开始工作,然后一直工作,我们将不得不工作到六十五、七十岁。我假设你工作到七十年,呃然后你还有另外二十年的预期寿命。这就是我们的生活,我认为我们必须重新思考我们人生的模式是否有意义,比如你学习到二十五岁,工作到七十岁,你总共有九十岁的预期寿命。

我认为持续不断地学习变得尤为重要,这意味着在你获得第一个学位之后,甚至应该提前计划未来十年二十年的时间,你可能需要重新定义自己做另一份工作,学习从事另一个职业大多数人仍然会说乌托邦是不现实的,谁会在五十五岁开始学习新的职业。

让我想一想,你知道大多数欧洲人在65岁时正在退休。但我认为我们必须以不同的方式思考事情,特别是随着自动化步伐的加快,你必须变得更有活力,才能更有力的拥抱你的未来。

3. So my third question is: In your opinion, what are the potential impacts of artificial intelligence on job satisfaction?

我的第三个问题是,您认为人工智能对雇员的工作满意度会产生哪些可能的影响?

That's a good question I mean, I guess if you don't work and you're satisfied. but there's equal to asking about your job satisfaction. You know if you got automated, to the extent that you're out of a job that takes care of the job satisfaction. But I want to answer to your question differently. A lot of your tasks may end up being automated, so many things with you before did now gets done automatically.

And I think you know that has two sides again.The one side I thinkyou know what a machine can be, an excellent aid too much that we do as an academic, being able to do research withmachines that are learning is a fantastic experience, which I think enriches our profession.I think there have a lot of architects, which willbe extremely pleased. They said the automation taking place in the way that houses are now being built by robots. How they canvisualize three dimensions, either they're constructions before a brick has been laid.

So I think a lot of this automationwill enrich a lot of professions, not now that being said, you have maybe a lot of people and I'm thinking primarily those will be completely out of the job which would be totally negatively affected by automation, which will lose their jobs and that's discussed before it's not only the standard truck driver, this can affect very many professions, also high school professions.

And of course, for these people, I could not speak job satisfaction thatprobably of unemployment or at least, losing a profession which they like before, and I recently spoke, my baker inSwitzerland, very nice bakery, which makes excellent bread by hand, but it's handmade and the breads don't always all look the same, sometimes it's a little black on the top because it's all handmade bread. But unfortunately she says she doesn't think that there's a future of this for her children because it all automated large bakeries where machines are making standardized bread all look the same.So maybe there's also a bit of a down side too.

这一个很好的问题!我猜你现在不工作,你当然很满意!但你若问起工作满意度,如果你知道自己的职业可能被自动化取代,那就有必要关注“工作满意度”这个问题。我想以不同的方式回答你的问题。你知道目前许多任务可能最终会自动完成,也就是说许多以前必须用到人力的工作都被自动化取代了。

说两个事,一个,你知道一台机器可以做些什么,比如学术机构的很多辅助工具,人们能够通过机器进行研究,这真的是奇妙的体验,我认为这将提高我们工作内容的丰富度。还有一个是,你看现在有很多建筑师,他们非常高兴能够目睹机器人参与房屋建设,自动化正使得建造房屋方式发生改变。机器人是如何实现将砌砖之前建筑的三维空间可视化呢?所以我认为很多这种自动化将会丰富许多职业,而不是像现在很多人说的那样(自动化会带来负面影响)。

我认为主要是那些完全不工作的人会受到自动化的负面影响,因为自动化将削弱他们找到工作的机遇。当然在这里也只是讨论一下,不仅是标准的卡车司机,自动化可能会影响很多职业,包括很多高校职位。

当然,对于这些人来说,我不会说什么工作满意度,因为或许他们将失去以前喜欢的职业。最近我也谈到一个例子,我认识一位瑞士的面包师,她有一家非常好的面包店,但因为是手工制作的,面包并不总是看起来一模一样,有时面包顶部有点黑。不幸的是她说她不认为她的孩子会在这一行上创造未来,因为目前很多大型面包房都全部实现自动化制造了,机器制造使得面包生产标准化。所以这样看来自动化也许也有一些影响不好的一面。

4. From your viewpoint, what the largest distinction of job satisfaction between Chinese employees and those in the Europe?

在您看来,中国工人和其他工人存在的最大区别在哪里?

You know this is what I just spoke about in my speech before,I thinkwe have certain problems in comparing job satisfaction,I mean if we just take a standard question in a job satisfaction survey, then as I showed my presentation before, although it's not one to one comparable, we get the impression that the average Chinese worker has a lower job satisfaction level than the average European worker, now that being said and I wouldn't interpret too much into this average.I mean don't interpret too much into these averages you know usually if you have a policy maker and he says job satisfaction is low in our country what we do about this, and then you'll hear the union saying when they need higher wages or more flexible work time, more time with the family, you know so as soon as you present statistics like this, the first thing that will happen is people will start to change aspects of the job to hope to increase job satisfaction.

Now I'm not saying that all job satisfaction measures, um, may notimply suchproactive policy making, I’m just a little bit more weary because I think especially in the Chinese case, and especially when comparing it to the European case, people when asked these jobs satisfaction questions, respond in a way which they believe, is acceptable to society, an acceptable to the person asking the question. This is the example made my presentation whereas maybe if you ask an American womanhow happy she and her job, she shall say “hey I'm absolutely fine! It's really great” and give me ten points.A Chinese average worker,when it may be asked how happy you and your job, maybeit's the right thing to do, the right answer to give, is to not go to the extremes but to replace your answer in the middle and say;“I’m fine”, that may be the giant Chinese, your Chinese are correct, if I’m wrong, okay.

This is my impression I get from looking at the statistics.I get the feeling that you have so many Chinese reporting in the middle and be saying,“I'm okay”, So maybe this attitude in China that may be showing too much positive emotion is perhaps, just as bad as showing too much negative emotion, so when I say the job satisfaction, average of every job satisfaction China seems lower than in Europe, don't interpret too much into that , it could simply be the weaken answer this questions.

你知道我刚才在谈论中也讲到了这一点,我认为我们在比较工作满意度方面存在一些问题,我的意思是如果我们只是在工作满意度调查中拿出一个标准问题,那么正如我之前的所说,虽然现在我们的印象是中国工人的工作满意度水平普遍低于普通欧洲工人水平,但我不会对这个平均数能做出太多解释。我的意思是,如果你是一个政策制定者,通常不会对这些平均数进行太多解释,如果说人们的工作满意度在我们国家很低,我们对此做了什么?然后你会听到工会说他们需要更高的工资或者更灵活的工作时间,更多的时间陪伴家人,只要你提出这样的统计数据,你就会知道首先会发生的事情是,人们会开始改变工作相关要求,希望提高工作满意度。

现在并不是说所有工作满意度衡量标准都意味着没有积极政策的制定。但我觉得,特别是针对中国情况而言,与欧洲的情况相比,我觉得有些困惑的是当被问及这些工作满意度问题时,人们以他们认为的方式做出回应,这种方式是他们认为能够被社会接受的,能够被采访者接受的。这就是我做刚刚讲时举的例子,当你问一个美国女人她在工作时有多开心,她会说:“嘿,我很好!这真的很棒“,并对她的工作打十分。但如果是一个中国普通工人,他们会说“我很好!”这是大部分中国人的表现,当然你也是中国人,或许你是对的。

但这就是统计数据给我留下的印象。我感觉有这么多中国人的回答处在中间水平,大部分人会说“我OK的”,也许这种表现出太多积极情绪的态度,可能与很多表现负面情绪一样糟糕,所以当我说工作满意的时候谈及中国的平均水平似乎低于欧洲,不要过分解读这一现象,这可能是因为调查结果弱化了问题的真实答案。

5. You have done a lot of research on subjective well-being, then what is your most important aspect of happiness? How do you boost your job satisfaction?

您做过大量关于主观幸福感的研究,那对您来说,哪一方面对幸福最重要?您是怎么来提升工作的主观幸福感?

Well, you're a young lady and you've got your life. You are so obviously knowing what will increase your life satisfaction, this may be important for you and I say you can. Okay I'll give you now two different sides of the literature, so you can choose which one your life places, it’ll give you the one side which will tend you. The bad side is, don't try to anything, you know because you're not going to be able to change it. And there's one theory which simply says, you're born with the level of happiness, and it doesn't really matter what you do, sure there may be ups and downs, you know maybe you get, find a nice husband and get married and you're really happy you get. Or you buy yourself a new car, it makes you really happy, or maybe you get sick, unhappy and so there are changes in your happiness over life.

But this one theory says, besides having these temporal changes, you'll stay at the same level throughout your whole life, I'm simplifying it a little bit. But this is of essence, what they call the so called set point theory which is, you're basically doomed to your level of life satisfaction, which you're born with your genetic endowment your personality. It's a bit of an extreme form of painting this, not so radical but that could be the one thing , it's just you know not much you're going to do about it, so, that could be the one I've heard this obviously a large body of literature which, shows you know what determines, what make up life happiness.

Okay. So you'll know for example that, a good health, seems to correlate strongly with high levels of life satisfaction, a good job, family relationships, seems to correlate strongly with overall life satisfaction. It's always difficult saying what causes is, just a whole personality but if you really want to know what domains matter, I'd give you three, health, family, work. So invest in those three things and maybe you'll be a little bit happier.

The final thing perhaps I just also want to mention to you, which is also in happiness literature is, if you're an average person, you're quite young now, what may must really happen if China is similar to the rest of the world, is as you get older now, you're gonna get more unhappy. All those things being equal, family, income, health. Because I'm just saying, you just live your life, you're gonna earn money and married, but taking all these things into account, your level of happiness will fall. It’s quite depressing, right? Okay It'll for a fall, until you get to my age, I know it's a long way away, but my age, when you get to my age, things will go up again, and you're still getting happier and after a half year, I'm not getting happier and happier, and then eventually you die, so there's this theory in it, It's called the U shape of life satisfaction,

Basically says it was really after controlling for all kinds of things is that, you know if you're young, you can listen this happier until you get to middle age, midlife crisis, around forty or fifty around there, and then you'll get happier again. So there's not much you can do to influence this, because you're gonna get older, you get any weight, until you get to middle age and after that you'll be happier again. Or perhaps you can be a bit creative because the reason whatever you know the reason is for this U shape, but one possible reason is that young people like you, have very high expectations. you know you have studied now and now, you're going out there, you want a good job, you want to marry handsome husband, you want a nice flat in an apartment. And you've got very high expectations and you're going to go out there, and then realize the world is maybe a little bit difficult. Not all expectations are going to be met and they're going to have, and this will make you unhappy. Until you get a bit older you have more realistic expectations, you know exactly what car you can afford and you're happy with that.

So maybe you could try to draw slowly to reduce your expectations and already I don't think it's a good idea. I would think when you're young, you should have high expectations, and try to achieve it. That's my mom answered.

那么你是一个年轻的女士,你有你的生活,你显然知道什么会增加你的生活满意度,这可能对你很重要,我说你可以。好吧,我现在会给你两个不同的文献研究,所以你可以选择你想要的,它会给你一个倾向于你选择的答案。坏的一面是,不要尝试任何事情,你知道因为你没有能力改变任何事。有一个理论提到,你生来就有幸福的程度,而且你做什么并不重要,生活肯定会有起伏波澜。你可能会找到一个好丈夫,结婚,你发自内心的感受到快乐。或者你给自己买了一辆新车,这会让你感到非常高兴;或者你会生病,心情沮丧。所以你的幸福感在生活中会不断变化。

但是这个理论说,除了有这些暂时的变化之外,你会在整个生活中保持同一水平。我将该理论内容简化了一下,但这是就是本质的,他们称此为所谓的设定点理论,就是说,你基本注定要达到你的生活满意度水平,而你的基因天赋就是你的个性。这一理论描绘了一种极端形式,不是那么激进,但可能是这么一回事,只是你知道的并不多,你会这样做。所以这可能是我听说过的大量文献中表明了你知道是什么决定、什么构成了人生的幸福的文献研究。好吧,例如,你会知道,身体健康似乎与高水平的生活满意度,良好的工作和家庭关系密切相关,似乎与整体生活满意度强烈相关。很难说造成这种情况的原因是什么。这只是一个整体的特性。

但如果你真的想知道哪些领域重要,我会给你三个,健康,家庭和工作。因此,投资这三件事,也许你会更快乐一点。最后,我想提醒你,如果你是一个普通人,而且现在你很年轻,假设中国与世界其他地方都相同,那么可能发生的事情是,随着变老,你会感受到更多的“不快乐”。

所有这些都是平等的,家庭,收入,健康。好吧,我只是想说,现在你只是过着自己的生活,但总有一天你要挣钱、结婚,当考虑到所有这些事情,你的幸福感程度会下降,这很令人沮丧,对吧?好吧,它会下降,直到你达到我的年龄,我知道其间有很长的路要走,但就我的年龄,当你达到我的年龄,事情会再次上升,你仍然越来越快乐,半年后,我没有变得更快乐,更快乐,最终死亡。所以这里有这个理论,它被称为“生活满意度”的U

基本上来说,在控制了各种事情之后,事实发展真的是这样子的,您知道如果你还年轻,你可以做你自己,这样听起来更快乐;当你人到中年,恰逢中年危机,事情显得不如你想象中那么如意,这大概在四五十岁左右。然后你会再次开心。所以你可以做很多事来影响这种状态,因为你会变老,体重增加,直到你到了中年,然后你会更快乐,或者你可能会更有活力。无论形成“生活满意度”U形最主要的原因是什么,但其中一个可能的原因是,像你们年轻人有很高的期望,你知道你想要追求的东西,你知道你需要学习,你要到达哪里,你想要一个又帅又有好工作的丈夫,你想要一个属于自己的漂亮公寓。然后当你意识到这个世界似乎有点困难,并不是所有的期望都会得到满足,你会感到不愉悦。直到你长大一点,你才会有更切合实际的期望,你确切知道你能买得起什么车,而且你对此感到满意。

所以也许你可以尝试慢慢绘制生活愿景图,以减少自己的期望,但我不认为这是一个好主意,我认为当你年轻的时候,你应该有很高的期望,并试图达到这个目标,这也是我妈妈曾经给我的答案。

6. You know the issue of aging in China is worsening, there are many older people in big cities, in your part, what are the possible effects on China’s economic development in the future?

中国人口老龄化问题日趋严重,这将对中国社会经济发展有哪些可能的影响?

Well, I think you should ask my colleague there was probably is more of a China expert than I am, but, in general you know aging populations, do you have an effect in the context, in a number of very many different ways,the first reason I guess is that with aging populations you have, I mean by definition we have shrinking workforce is, this is the reason why you have aging in the same state, the proportion of older people gets larger and larger and relative, you know to the smaller, to the younger population means that your labor force is shrinking, having a shrinking labor force, means that, in a very simple model of, it means that your economy will be smaller you'll grow less rapidly also, is this a bad thing?

Well, we can talk about this also differ, shrinking economy is a good or bad thing, leaving for another day this discussion but, that is one problem you have you know our societies are geared, having growing economies, with aging populations in a shrinking workforce it becomes ever increasingly difficult, to maintain economic growth, simple as that, you can offset that you can say you got a shrinking labor force.

But, there are many other aspects which could enhance growth, for example productivity, total spoke about automation okay well, maybe the work force is shrinking but hey we're going to have a good lot of good robots which can do a lot with other people could have done which are here now, so, you can have productivity games through automation other forms but, you know this could help to maintain a certain, the level of economic growth, it's a little open debate, we don't know that. In the past years productivity growth has been very slow and sluggish, others will argue this is just a temporary phenomenon when automation really kicks in this productivity rise will be much larger it's difficult to tell but we can't say is that productivity growth has been slow in the last one to two decades, so we slept to see to what extent productivity gains can compensate for the reduction in the labor force, yes I think that's definitely one, influence that you have on the economy.

Obviously, I think China knows best of all is the shrinking labor force, we'll pose great challenges on social security, medical care, and this is something which each society can have to cope with but we still have model, which patients often are not funded, which means that the young generation is paying for the pensions of the old generation, China now recently introduced a pension system, universal pension system is still quite modest so, but I think as China becomes more prosperous, and ages more.

I think the pension issue will gain in importance, and there will be the question of how do you want to fund these kind of pension systems and there are a lot of ideas out there from every different pension systems, moving from an unfunded system of the even funded system is liable to demographic change so that's not the total complete solution, migration has been the word spoken in other countries.

I don't know to what extent China is willing and able to accept more migrants, you can increase the retirement age needs to say China will have to do that eventually, life expectancy rises education levels rises, they're gonna have to raise the retirement age, so there are ways to also counteract this so, aging populations will have many, I think it will affect, all kinds of, the aspects of daily life, because besides economic growth, social security systems sort of the standard topics, I could go on talking about all kinds of things also the real estate markets, this is something where China, matters a lot you know housing, how does demographic change how will it affect housing prices, Now there's a large literature about this which, shows that you know as you're, as the age composition of the population changes so do housing prices, behave tourism behavior travel behavior, you know there's virtually no field I think, society which will not be affected, and, demographic change, to the age of relations intimate, I think so, and considering the magnitude, the speed, which you, which Chinais aging, I think this will have a tremendous effectiveness.

我想你应该问我的同事,可能有更多的中国专家研究的更为深刻。在一般人口老龄化的背景下,对经济是否有影响,有很多种不同的解释,我认为第一种可能的原因是,随着人口老龄化,我们的劳动力正在萎缩,这就是为什么在同一个国家有老龄化问题的原因。老年人的比例变得越来越大,相对而言,年轻人比重减少,意味着劳动力正在减少,如果放在一个非常简单的模型中,这意味着你的经济将会变小,你的增长也会变得不那么迅速,这是坏事吗?

我们可以谈论一些不同的点,经济萎缩是好事还是坏事?这是另一个问题了。我们的社会是面向发展的,经济在增长,随着人口老龄化,劳动力不断减少,保持经济增长变得越来越困难,简单来说,你可以说你得到了一个萎缩的劳动力。

但是,还有很多其他方面可以促进增长,比如生产力,总体上说是自动化,也许劳动力在减少,但是我们会有很多好的机器人,这些机器人可以和其他人一起做很多事情,现在我们已经做了很多,所以,你可以通过自动化(其他形式)来进行生产力游戏,这可以帮助保持一定的经济增长水平,这是一个有点开放的争论。在过去的几年里生产力增长非常缓慢,但其他人会认为这只是一个暂时的现象,当自动化在这个生产力增长中真正发挥作用的时候,生产率会大很多,当然这很难说。但我们不能说在过去的一到二十年里生产力增长一直很缓慢,所以我们可以思考生产力的增长能在多大程度上弥补劳动力的减少,我认为这是一个很明显的对经济的影响。

我认为在中国最明了的是劳动力的萎缩将对社会医疗保障带来巨大的挑战,这是每个社会都不得不应付的,但我们仍然有这样的模式,一些病人体制还没有建立,这意味着年轻一代正在支付老一代的养老金,中国最近推出了养老金制度,但普遍的养老金制度还是不太健全的。我认为,随着中国的繁荣和老龄化,养老金问题将变得越来越重要。

还有一个问题是,你想如何资助这些养老金体系?每个不同的养老金体系都有很多不同内容,从一个无资金的系统中转移到人口结构的变化上,所以这并不是完全的解决办法,移民一直是其他国家所说的话.

我不知道中国在多大程度上愿意并能够接受更多的移民,你可以提高退休年龄,中国最终将不得不这样做,预期寿命增加,教育水平提高,他们将不得不提高。退休年龄,所以也有办法来抵消这一点,老龄化人口会有很多,我认为它会影响到日常生活的各个方面,因为除了经济增长,社会保障制度之类的标准话题,我可以继续谈论各种各样的事情,也就是房地产市场,这是一个中国的问题,你很了解住房,人口如何改变它对房价的影响。现在有大量的文献表明,随着人口年龄的变化,房价也在变化,旅游行为也在发生变化,我认为几乎没有任何领域,社会不会受到影响;人口变化一定的年龄,考虑到中国老龄化的规模和速度,这将产生巨大的效果。

7. As for this phenomena, Chinese government has promoted “active aging” and “healthy aging”. Then, what are your suggestions for boosting "active aging" and "healthy aging" in China?

关于这一现象,中国政府提倡"积极老龄化""健康老龄化"。那么,您有什么建议来提高中国的"积极老龄化""健康老龄化"

You know when I look around without being a real specialist in China, when I walk through the streets here, I get the feeling the Chinese are very healthy people. I don't know what “active aging” and “healthy aging” they still need, because you know when I see what they eat is healthy foods. The other day, I looked out of office window and saw people doing exercise over lunch, very few people are overweight or obese remarkable, although we know the obesity trend has been increasing in China in the last decade. I guess eventually with economic growth you may have the obesity problem, but at the moment in general I see a society which is physically healthy and very active.

Now that being said, of course, I guess one can always promote more active behavior and all the age, I wouldn't think that in China this should be the main priority. I could imagine that perhaps other aspects which maybe more important from a public health perspective, for instance, (I’m guessing a little bit) smoking behavior. You get the feeling that an international comparison Chinese smoke quite a lot. I think these aspects are perhaps just as important as promoting active aging in making sure that people age healthy.

That could be a more promising avenue to go down, so I think all kinds of what they call the so called risky behaviors from alcohol consumption to smoking.I’m not going to what extent until I have read that. There are also psychological problems in China, I don't know to what extent now. Another problem is a prescription drug problem, but I think knowing risky behaviors could be make sure that people live long and healthy.

Besides, you know what all other countries are doing with to ensure active aging, physical health, since healthy diets and physical activity are growing importance also mental cognitive skills or cognitive agility, and to make sure that all the people will stay active. With regard to these aspects, I get the feeling that the Chinese are doing international comparison quite well.

你知道,在中国当我环顾四周,不把自己当作一个真正的专家,走在这里的街道上,我觉得中国人是非常健康的人。我不太明白相关的部门还需要怎样的"积极年龄化"和"健康老龄化",我所注意到大家吃的食物是很健康的。前几天,我从窗外往外看,看到人们在午餐后做运动,很少有人超重或肥胖。尽管我们知道过去十年中国的肥胖趋势一直在增加。我想最终随着经济的增长,你也可能会面对肥胖的问题,但目前总的来说,我看到是一个身体健康、非常活跃的社会。

既然这样说了,当然,我想一个人总是可以追求更积极的行为,不管在哪个年龄,但是我不认为在中国,这应该是主要的优先项。我可以想象,也许其他方面,也许更重要的是从公共卫生的角度来看, 例如,(我猜想)吸烟行为。你会觉得从国际上看,中国吸烟比较多。这些方面在我看来也许同样重要,因为促进积极老龄化,需要确保人们的老年健康。

这可能是一个更有希望的途径,所以我认为,这是从酒精消费到吸烟称之为所谓的危险行为的原因(我不知道具体到什么程度,除非我了解了相关数据)。在中国也存在心理问题,我不知道现在有多大程度。另一个问题是处方药问题,但我认为知道危险的行为可以确保人们长寿和健康

此外,其他国家也正在做积极老龄化,例如确保身体健康,因为健康的饮食和体育活动越来越重要。心理认知技能或认知敏捷性也很重要,能让人们保持活跃。关于这些方面,我觉得在国际上中国人做得很好。

8. Thank you so much, professor, the last question is beneficial for our students, even though the numbers of Chinese students often go abroad to study and now Chinese overseas students are increasing rapidly and they compete fiercely to obtain a decent offer from foreign universities, so in your opinion how to make a successful applicant for a PhD program of economics in Germany?

非常谢谢您,教授,最后一个问题对我们的学生是有益的,中国有很多学生出国留学,增长也越来越快且竞争激烈,大家都希望能从外国大学得到一份不错的录取通知书,所以在您看来,如何成功申请在德国的经济学博士计划?

Well, I think it's very competitive. There are a lot of Chinese applying for our positions and universities around the world, and I’ve got quite a large group of students, um I think there are Chinese, and most of these scholarships are given based on the competition, and I think the Chinese are very well equipped with our university.

We always have many Chinese applicants that I think will have excellent education here in China, especially the schooling education is fantastic as we've seen. A PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) of study and others in a Chinese, they perform, based were close to base in the world, when it comes to medical skills but also languages you said. I think most Chinese are willing to go abroad and brings a lot of the prerequisites needed in order to give them ownership.

So I often think the problem of getting scholarships. I think it quite a bit differently for Chinese to get into universities and PhD programs in Germany but generalized actually too much of Europe. I say is not all that difficult, obviously there will be some minimum requirements that you have to fulfill from language skills to standardized tests like the GRE or the GMAT or whatever, but I’ve got no doubt that the most Chinese students will do these tests, and they'll do them very well and, and they'll get accepted into these institutions. Perhaps that will be more relevant questions if they're getting acceptance into PhD programs in Europe or even good PhD programs in the United States.

I think the more relevant important question is how I can find this the host universities that have funding opportunities so they've got scholarships or teaching assistantships which can be offered but they're limited in scale. And I know from my experience in one time that many Chinese apply for oversees scholarship in China to go to study, and that is the real hurdle. You know I don't think the real problem is getting acceptance at the university in a European country. I think the real hurdle is getting a scholarship if you apply for one in China because that is extremely competitive, and there you have to work not only be lucky but you really have to have very good results. I think it's much harder than getting accepted by the Western university.

嗯,我认为这非常有竞争压力。有很多中国人申请我们在世界各地的职位和大学,我有相当多的一群学生,包括中国学生。大多数的奖学金是基于竞争来发的,我认为中国学生对此有充分的准备。

我们总是有很多中国的申请人,我认为他们在中国受到良好的教育,尤其是受到良好的学校教育,像我们已经看到的那样。最近的一个国际学生评估项目显示,很多中国人基础非常扎实,语言能力也很强。大多数中国人多愿意出国,这也成为了先决条件。

所以我经常思考获得奖学金的问题。我认为中国人进入德国大学获取博士学位课程有很大的不同,但普遍来说,在欧洲也是这样。我说不是所有的都很困难。显然会有一些最低要求,你必须达到语言技能和标准化测试,如GRE或GMAT或其他什么。但我毫不怀疑,大多数中国学生会做这些测试,他们会做得很好,他们将被接纳进入这些机构,更确切的问题可能在他们申请到欧洲的甚至美国的博士课程之后。

我认为更相关的重要问题是,国外的大学如何给国际申请者提供资助的机会,以便获得奖学金或教学助教,这个规模是有限的。我从我的经验中了解到, 许多中国人都在国内申请到奖学金,这才是真正的障碍。我不认为真正的问题是被欧洲国家的大学录取,真正的难题是获得奖学金。在中国申请奖学金也是非常有竞争压力的,你必须努力工作,不仅要是幸运的,还得有好的结果。我认为这比被西方大学录取要难得多。

Prof. Alfonso Sousa-Poza, that's all my question for you.Thank you very muchfor your kind reply!

Alfonso Sousa-Poza教授,这些是所有的问题。非常感谢您的答复!

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