嘉宾介绍：

Gary H. Jefferson，耶鲁大学经济学博士，现为美国Brandeis University讲席教授，长期在世界银行担任研究顾问，主要研究领域为中国经济、经济增长、技术创新，主持了近10个与中国相关的NSF和美国能源部课题，以研究中国的经济问题而蜚声国际经济学界。

Jefferson教授2007年至今担任武汉大学荣誉教授，与北京大学、清华大学、复旦大学等多所大学的国内知名学者保持紧密的学术联系，是美国著名的中国经济问题研究专家，在中国经济学界享有盛誉。

Q1:Our first question is about your research. We know that you have been focusing on China's economic transformation, FDI and property rights reform. So how do you think property rights reform and FDI work on China's economic transformation?

我们的第一个问题是关于您的研究的。我们了解到您一直关注中国的经济转型，外商直接投资和产权改革等问题。那么您如何看待产权改革和外商直接投资对中国经济转型的影响呢？

A:Well, that's somewhat similar and somewhat different. Let me give you my broadest perspective first. My broadest perspective is that China's economic reform can be summarized by the fact that, prior to reforms, the whole bundle of property rights and that bundle of property rights would include the ownership of land housing corporations in human capital. That bundle of copyrights was originally controlled by and owned by the central government. And it was embedded or embodied in an annual plan or five year plan. And the function of the government at that time was to create a tool for exercising power and authority to make central plans and to implement all property rights that were primarily controlled by the government.

这有点类似也有点不同。先说一下我最宽泛的看法。我最广泛的观点是，中国的经济改革可以归结为这样一个事实，即在改革之前，一揽子产权包括土地住房公司在人力资本中的所有权。这一系列产权最初由中央政府控制和拥有。它被嵌入或体现在年度计划或五年计划中。当时政府的职能是创造一种行使权利、权威的工具，以便制定中央计划并实施所有主要有政府控制的产权。

An essential feature of China's economic reforms was the unbundling of this bundle of property rights that had been controlled by the state and the reassignment or reallocation of those property rights to individuals and independent or private organizations. So now, for example, you know, have the right to choose your university, the field of study when you graduate. You go on to a job market, labor market, you can choose your job. You can change your career. These are your choices. And you can also own or start up a corporation, a company. You can be mobile within China, you can go abroad.

中国经济改革的一个基本特征是拆分了由国家控制的这一揽子产权，并将这些产权重新配置或重新分配给个人、独立或私人组织。所以现在，比如说你有权选择你的大学、专业，你进入就业市场，可以选择你的工作，可以改变你的职业生涯……这些是你的选择。而且你也可以拥有或创办一家公司。你可以在国内，也可以出国。

So all these property rights, have been including intellectual property. So there's now the state intellectual property office. And its job is so if there's a patent application from you and you and you and you, and they all filed for the same patent. Maybe they came at different times. Maybe they're a little different, but the function of the intellectual property Office is to regulate and determine the attribution of these property rights.

所有这些产权，都包括知识产权。所以现在有国家知识产权局。如果有几个人专利申请，而且他们都申请同样的专利，也许他们来的时间不同，也许他们的专利有很小的差异。知识产权局的职能就是，调节并决定这些产权的归属。

So a key implication of this is to assign a property rights，is it? No, China has to have a very extensive system of new kinds of institutions that are able to clarify and mediate the exercise and the exchange of those property rights. So one organization like that is the state intellectual property officer. And also the court system does that. Some legislative bodies, do that certain ways. There are non-governmental organizations, some registered, some unregistered，that do that in some ways. So it's really in significant ways change the key function of the government so that rather than exercising its singular monopoly control over all these property rights is having to help to develop these various institutions that can be effective in clarifying, mediating the exchange of other copyrights.

因此，关键问题是产权的授予吗？不，中国必须有一个非常广泛的新型制度体系，能够明晰和协调这些产权的行使和交换。国家知识产权局就是这样的组织，法院、立法机构也以某种方式这样做。有一些非政府组织，已注册或未注册的，在某些方面也在努力。因此，政府的关键职能确实在很大程度上发生了改变，从对所有这些产权实行单一的垄断控制，变成了支持帮助这些能够有效明晰，协调产权交换的机构的发展。

So we can see that now those property rights have been assigned to individuals and to private organizations. They have very much incentive to eye the economic behavior of individuals and organizations to be far more efficient and creative than they were 4 years ago.

因此，我们可以看到，现在这些产权已被分配给个人和私人组织，个人和组织的经济行为受其激励，比4年前都更有效率和创造性。

Q2:What's your opinion on the current situation of China's reform process? And we all call China's economy is entering a new normal. So what's your understanding of China's new normal economy? What opportunities and challenges are we facing?

请问您对中国改革的现状有什么看法呢？中国经济现在进入新常态阶段，那么，你对中国新常态经济的理解是什么呢？我们面临的机会和挑战是什么？

A:As developing countries develop, they create markets, resources are allocated more efficiently and attract more investment. However, at some point, there's so much investment that it begins to reduce the marginal product or returns to physical capital possible. So my observation is that over the last twenty five years, the same amount of investment results in less economic growth and the market of credit fault. At the same time, the marginal product of human capital is also declined. And part of that is because it was so much investment on the part of the government in secondary education, higher education.

随着发展中国家的发展，它们创造了市场，更有效率地分配资源，吸引了更多的投资。然而，在某种程度上，如此多的投资，它有开始减少边际产出或回报实物资本可能性。所以我观察到在过去的25年里，相同的投资额带来更少的经济增长，而且信贷市场失灵。同时，人力资本的边际产出也在下降，部分原因是政府在中等教育，高等教育方面资金注入量大。

So the problem is there's been so much investment. It's remove that important avenue for economic growth, which is investment with a high return to the best. So what this means is two things. One is there needs to be move liberalization in order to try it increase efficiency. And the second is need to be more technical change.

所以问题在于，资金注入量大，而这就消除了经济增长的重要途径——高回报的投资。这意味着两件事。一是需要采取自由化措施，以提高效率。第二是需要进行更多的技术性变革。

Q3:So you have been studying the Chinese economy for more than 40 years. Are you still an optimist or a pessimist?

您研究中国经济超过40年，您对中国经济是保持乐观还是悲观态度呢？

A:I am optimistic. The interaction between China and other countries has led to a link between culture and the economy. This connection will continue to grow and be strong in the future.

我保持乐观态度。中国与其他国家的互动导致了文化与经济之间的联系，这种联系将继续增长，并在未来保持强劲。

Q4:Recently Huawei 5G equipment has encountered obstacles in the international market, why Chinese communication companies such as Huawei and ZTE encounter foreign policy restrictions?

最近华为5G设备在国际市场遇到障碍，您认为华为和中兴等中国通信公司为什么会遇到外交政策限制？

A:You know, China is a kind of collective decision making government. You know China have been on its own special path. So I think there are some economic and political problems in the obstacles that Huawei faces, and it's hard to separate them. So of course young Huawei, it’s kind of a symbol of China, because It challenges the technological advantage of the United States, and also challenges the issue of network security, the US now is sensitive to this because of rushes intervention in the 2016 presidential election.

中国更多的是集中性决策的政府，走的是它自己的特殊道路。目前，我认为华为面对的障碍存在一些经济和政治问题，并且很难将它们分开。当然，年轻的华为，是中国的象征，它挑战了美国的技术优势，也挑战了网络安全问题。由于2016年黑客对总统大选的干预，美国现在对此很敏感。

Q6:Besides，I wonder how Huawei react to the restriction enter American market?

那么，华为要如何应对进入美国市场的限制呢？

A:They're working two ways. The United States is blocking technology from being available China and walking Chinese markets. First of all, if the US doesn't allow china to use its technology, I think it will probably motivate Chinese companies just develop that technology at home. So it may take a few years, you know, to fill in those holes. But I suspect they will succeed doing that. And in terms of sales are your Huawei, but I think, in case of Huawei, it's all of world, and there a lot of other men. And you've got the belt and road initiative, so Huawei can move along the railroad. So you don't think it's a big problem. I think it's more of a political and economic problem, more concerned about it caused by the cold war tensions between the US and China than I am about where Huawei gets technology.

有两种应对方式。美国正在阻止自己的技术进入中国市场。首先，如果美国不允许中国使用其技术，我认为这可能会促使中国公司在国内开发该技术。因此，华为可能需要几年才能填补这些漏洞，但我认为他们会成功做到这一点。另外，就销售而言，中国的华为会是全世界的华为，有很多对它感兴趣的人。而且中国已经拥有了一带一路的主动权，因此华为可以沿着一带一路推广。所以没必要认为这是一个大问题。我认为这更像是一个政治和经济问题，更值得关注的是中美之间的冷战局势，而不是华为在哪里获得技术的问题。

Q5:As you just mentioned the U.S.-China tension, now let’s talk something about the U.S.-China trade tension. We know that ten days ago, at G20 summit, U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he agree to stop imposing any new tariffs on China. After that, trade talks between the two sides are being held frequently. In your perspective, what impact do you think it will have and what result it will have?

您刚才也提到中美的紧张局势，那下面您能否谈谈关于中美贸易争端您的看法。10天前，在G20峰会上，美国总统特朗普与中方达成共识，承诺停止对中国征收任何新的关税。近日，双方也在频繁地进行贸易对话。请问从您的角度来看，您认为它会产生什么影响，会产生什么结果？

A:Well, I was talking with someone who saw the list of all the demands that the Trump administration is making on China. And he said that the Chinese will never be willing to satisfy all those. So this person thought that next year the sanctions would, in fact, probably go into effect. And I think it's possible that things will get worse before they get better, as long as Donald Trump is in power. Again, this is more political than economic. And I think it will slow global growth and the slowing of global growth, of course, can have very bad impact at first political consequences. So it could be a downward spiral. And the probability of that is much greater than it was ten years ago, when the international financial crisis broke out. Because in order to get out of the crisis, countries were much more cooperative than they are now. So it's really hard to say.

我之前和一个看了特朗普政府正在给中国拟定的清单的人谈话。他说，中国人不会答应这些要求的，所以他认为明年的制裁可能会生效。我认为在特朗普任期，贸易战可能在好转之前变得更糟，因为这更偏向是政治问题而非经济问题。贸易战将减缓全球增长，全球经济增长放缓又首先可能会对政治产生非常坏的影响，所以这是一个向下的螺旋。而且这种下行可能比十年前国际金融危机爆发时要大得多，因为当时各国为了走出危机，它们比现在更加合作。所以真的很难说。

So I think that both sides need to make sure they keep their governments accountable. And I would say China does need more reforms, in terms of opening its markets and being more robust in its enforcement of intellectual property rights.

所以我认为，双方都必须确保自己的政府是负责的。我想说，中国确实需要更多的有关更好的开放市场和加强知识产权实施改革。

Q7:Why did you choose to study China and Chinese economy?

您为什么选择研究中国和中国经济呢？

A:A long time ago, when I was in college, my university had a project to send graduates to Hong Kong, so I taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong for two years. But I think my motivation is to try to understand China and release more things, build a bridge between countries, you may feel that I am a bit idealistic. But I can understand China more deeply. It may promote collective communication between the United States, Western countries and China. So I did that. And I had a good time in Hong Kong.

很久以前，当我上大学时，我的学校有一个项目是将毕业生送到香港，所以我在香港中文大学任教两年。但我认为我的动机是试图了解中国并发布更多的东西，并在国家之间架起一座桥梁，你可能会觉得我有点理想主义。但我能更深入地了解中国。 它可以促进美国，西方国家和中国之间的交流。 所以我去了香港，并在香港度过了愉快的时光。

The next event is that I got a scholarship at Wuhan University for more than one year. So I became more involved. In the late 1980s, I worked with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Later, I worked in the National Bureau of Statistics. Also I worked in some other organizations. I enjoy it and I've been delighted to work oversea.

后来我在武汉大学获得了一份奖学金。所以我更加投入。20世纪80年代末，我在中国社会科学院工作。后来，我在国家统计局工作，还在其他一些组织工作过。我享受这个工作历程，并很高兴能在海外工作。

 

 

 

经金学院

2019年1月3日